Today two more states are included, bring the total states to ten. These are the last states I will add this week, so there is a chance to look at other data related to these ten states on Thursday and Friday of this week. The purpose of this blog is to look beyond the total number of cases in each state and examine the trends, relative to other states. However, for the purpose of context, the worldwide total as of this post is over 932,000 with over 213,000 in the US.
Today's post will be identical to yesterday's; I will report the same figures and tables, with updated numbers, and including the two new states, Arizona and Pennsylvania.
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| Figure 1. Total Number of COVID Cases over Time in Ten States |
As always, the first graph (see Figure 1) shows the total number of diagnosed positive cases over time. This graph and the next one are important representations, since the public message is to "bend the curve." However, of the ten state data sources included here, none include a visualization of the curve as of today. The trends are holding for all of the states previously examined. Of the new states included, Arizona has a slight decrease in the rate of positives. The next couple days will show if this is a trend, or if it is a one day blip in reporting. The other new state, Pennsylvania, is on the upward trajectory seen in the three states with the most cases represented in this visual (Michigan, Florida, and California). One last note on Figure 1, you will notice that on 3/25/20, Pennsylvania and Colorado were nearly identical in the total number of cases. After that date, Pennsylvania cases grew exponentially, while Colorado held a steady, more linear path.
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| Figure 2. Total Cases of COVID over Time After the 40th Case Confirmed |
Since the spread of the disease across the country means that states will be impacted at different times, it is valuable to reset the X-axis from a common stating point. In Figure 2, Day 1 is the day each state reported the 40th case. Examining the curves in this way show the growth in each state that can be compared to the other states. For instance, on Day 14 after the 40th case, California actually had fewer cases than Iowa on Day 14. Florida and Pennsylvania are following a very similar growth pattern. Arizona is difficult to see (in purple), but on Day 14, it has nearly the same number of cases as Maryland's Day 14. Hopefully, Indiana can keep the curve down in the next couple days, and does not follow the same trend as Florida and Pennsylvania.
One thing not mentioned in several days is the percentage change from the previous day [range: 9.6% to 22.6%]. Arizona (9.6%) and Iowa (10.5%) have the smallest percentage increase from the previous day, followed by Colorado (12.7%), Florida (17.3%), California (17.6%), Indiana (18.8%), Missouri (19.1%), Maryland (19.6%), Pennsylvania (19.9%), and Michigan (22.6%).
Finally, since new states are included, it is important to look at the population and population density of the new states in comparison to the states previously examined. Table 1 shows the data on all ten states and includes the total number of COVID cases reported by each state as of 8pm EST. Pennsylvania and California have a similar population density, but the percentage of the population with COVID in Pennsylvania is more than double the percentage of California. Maryland still has the highest population density of the ten states and the most cases per square mile. Michigan still has the highest percentage of the population who have tested positive. Arizona has a low population density and is more similar to Iowa in the percentage of cases than to Colorado, both states which also have a low population density.
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| Table 1. Population, Square Miles, Population Density, and COVID for Ten States. |
Tomorrow I will update the testing numbers. I saw a report today that mentioned over 150,000 tests are waiting to be analyzed, with a ten day waiting period. Meaning, any data that you see here or reported on state websites, is only as recent as the tests which have completed the specimen analysis. As experts have said from the start, the numbers drastically underestimate the reality. Meanwhile, yesterday I received an email from Hopkins Medicine which stated they have capacity to test 1,000 per day as of today. They are prioritizing patients who are "...older, male, and those who have a history of cardiovascular conditions, or pre-existing lung disease." I have not heard the emphasis on testing men reported widely, but the evidence examined in this blog on Monday supports that strategy. Look for more emphasis on gender in the next few days.
As always, Stay Home, Stay Safe, Stay Healthy. JRB
love it! keep it up girl!
ReplyDeleteSo can we draw the conclusion that people in more densely populated areas are more susceptible to this disease? I live in Florida and over 60% of the cases are in Broward, Dade and Palm Beach counties which is the heavily populated southeast part of the state.
ReplyDeleteMore susceptible is not the right way to think about the spread. People in highly concentrated areas are not more susceptible, but more likely to come in contact with with a carrier. Researchers have suggested that, due to population density, the highly populated areas will be impacted first, and the rural areas will be hit later.
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