Trends in 10 states & new data tools

The last update I posted was 6 days ago. Since then, the ten states included here have deviated into three groups, which will be apparent in today's graphs. As a reminder, the purpose of this blog is to look beyond the accumulative totals in the separate states and compare the trends across states. For a reference, the current global total at the time of this post is 2,034,425, while the US total approaches 620,000. As of this post, the California, Colorado, and Florida numbers have not been released for 4/15/20.

Most states have changed the graphic for how the data is presented on the state's site and the level of detail being reported. Johns Hopkins has also increase the level of detail reported on its site. There is now a US specific map, which can be accessed with a tab on the top of the main page or with the link here. This map gives a high level of detail for every county in the US. The data can be accessed by selecting the county you are interested in viewing and then expanding the infographic. The number of hospital beds, ICU beds, and more is included for every county. The final tab includes critical trends and compares countries. The ability to compare states is not available at this time. When it is, I will no longer publish this blog.

As always, the first graph shows the total number of cases over time in all ten states. At first glance, it is clear that states are falling into one of three clusters. Comparing the population totals (see Table 1) to the growth trends in Figure 1 illuminate this data.  First, the states with the highest populations [range: 998,000 to 3,951,000] have also diagnosed the most extreme number of cases (Michigan, California, Florida, and Pennsylvania). The second group (Indiana, Maryland, and Colorado) also have a similar population [range: 576,000 to 673,000]. The final cluster of states are the states with the slowest spread: Arizona, Iowa, and Missouri. Arizona and Missouri have a similar state-wide population compared to the previous group of states, however the population density is much lower (see Table 1). Colorado is the only state with a low population density which is in the middle group of trend lines. A final note, the high population density of Maryland appears to be impacting the growth trend. Compared to the other states, Maryland is not leveling off (Bending the curve) as quickly. Table 1 shows that although Maryland now has over 1 case per square mile, Pennsylvania and Michigan still have a higher percentage of the total population diagnosed as positive.

Figure 1. Total number of COVID Cases over Time in Ten States

Table 1. Population, Population Density, and COVID for Ten States.

Resetting the x-axis to start with the 40th diagnosed case (See Figure 2), Arizona and Iowa still demonstrate the slowest spread of cases. Missouri, however, is on a similar trend line as Colorado. Maryland and Indiana are also similar. Since the previous post, Florida has significantly decreased the rate of spread, as compared to Pennsylvania.

Figure 2. Total Number of COVID Cases over Time for Ten States, after the 40th Reported case

The final pieces of data for today are related to testing and mortality in each state (see Table 2). Although a couple weeks ago I suggested the percentage of positives would decrease, that has not been the case. In fact, the percentage of positives is increasing. This means that wide-spread testing still is not implemented. Most states continue to have restrictions on who can access a test. In other words, testing is not available to identify the asymptomatic carriers of COVID-19. Only after implementing wide-spread community testing will the percentage of positive decrease. I naively assumed the country would have that at this point. As for deaths related to COVID, Michigan continues to have both the highest number of deaths and the highest death rate, compared to the other 9 states. Colorado and Indiana are the only two other states above 4%.  Another important statistic is the percentage of the total population tested in each state. Only Pennsylvania (1.07%) and Florida (1%) have tested at least 1% of their populations, followed by Maryland (.92%), Michigan (.91%), Missouri (.82%), Indiana (.72%), Colorado (.69%), Iowa (.63%), Arizona (.62%), and California (.55%).

Table 2. Number of Deaths, Death Rate, Total Tested, and Percentage Positive for Ten States. 

Summarily, although everyone is eager to restart a semblance of normalcy, the availability of testing is the largest hurdle to achieving that goal. Until the country is able to identify the asymptomatic carriers of the disease, restarting the country could be disastrous. So, until that time, Stay Home, Stay Safe, Stay Healthy -JRB