10 States: Testing Data

The purpose of this blog is to look beyond the total number of cases in each state and examine the trends, relative to other states. However, for the purpose of context, the worldwide total as of this post is over 1,014,000 with over 244,000 in the US.

Today is an update on the testing data. The totals in each country and in state are only as accurate as the availability of tests. Before the updated testing data is presented, you can see both the total cases over time for ten states (see Figure 1) and total cases over time after 40 cases were reported (see Figure 2).

Figure 1. Total COVID Cases over Time for Ten States

Figure 2. Total Cases of COVID over time after 40 Cases Reported

As for the testing data, Figure 3 shows the total number of tests completed in each state, while Figure 4 reflects the percentage of tests positive in each states. California and Florida appear to be ahead of other states in testing, but all of the sames are comparable when factoring in total population. In other words, the percentage of the states' population tested across all ten states is consistent [range 0.21% - 0.43%]. Iowa (.21%) has tested the smallest percentage of its population, followed by Indiana (.24%). On the other end, Pennsylvania (.43%) has tested the highest percentage of its population, followed by Florida (.37%). The other six states are nearly identical in testing percentage. 

Figure 3. Total Tests Competed in Ten States

Figure 4. Percentage of Positive COVID Tests in Ten States

As for percentage positives, Michigan's numbers are still incredibly high. As stated previously, it was announced that Johns Hopkins will be testing around 1000 per day in Maryland as of yesterday. Hopkins also has facilities in Florida, however I do not have knowledge of their procedures. This brings me to another testing difference, whether or not people can access testing. Again, I can speak to my personal knowledge of testing in Maryland. Employees of Hopkins have a phone number to call if symptomatic. I am aware of individuals who called the number, scheduled their test, took the test, and had results in about 28-32 hours (from report to results). Most Americans have a very different experience. One company reported having 160,000 test samples waiting to be analyzed. I say this to emphasize the point that the numbers reported by most states are several days behind actual totals. Also, since the country was not able to adopt a wide spread testing procedure, we will never know the number of asymptomatic cases. Testing capacity in each states plays a significant role in the data each state is able to report. From the data, one thing is starting to be clear, gender makes a difference. 

Figure 5. Percentage of Positive COVID Cases by Gender

Figure 5 represents the gender distribution for nine of the ten states. Pennsylvania does not report gender demographics at this time. Some states do not add up to 100% because gender was not always reported. Overall, the distribution is fairly even between males and females. However, the mortality rates identified a few days ago with the initial numbers are holding consistent. Of the three states reporting gender demographics of people who have died of COVID (see Figure 6), males represent around 60% of the mortalities, compared to 40% of females. In other words, the preliminary data suggests men are more likely to die from COVID than women. As more states begin to report the demographics, I will continue to report on this element. The overall mortality rate of the ten states remains around 2% [range: 1.04% - 3.86%]. Missouri (1.04%), Pennsylvania (1.28%), Maryland (1.54%), Florida (1.66%), and Iowa (1.79%) have the five lowest mortality rates, while Arizona (2.00%), California (2.21%), Indiana (2.57%), Colorado (2.60%) and Michigan (3.86%) have the highest rates of the states examined. 

Figure 6. Mortalities of COVID by Gender

There has not been a significant change in the age distribution of the states. Therefore, I will not include those graphics today. Other testing data is inconsistently reported. Michigan is the first state to report positives disaggregated by race/ethnicity. However, the number of  "unknown" is so high (30%), is would be irresponsibly to discuss distributions until other states also begin to report more demographic data. Finally, hospitalizations are being reported in six of the ten states. However, the numbers are cumulative, so comparing hospitalizations to hospital capacity would not be meaningful. 


As always, Stay Home, Stay Safe, Stay Healthy - JRB