13 States: 3 New States and a Peek at Global Numbers

Somehow, 13 days have gone by since the previous post. In this post I will update the numbers for all of the states. Also, as the title of this post mentions, I included Oregon, Ohio, and Illinois. With the inclusion of these three states, the total number of states represented here increased to thirteen. With the thirteen states, it is becoming a bit difficult to discern each of the states' trend lines, which is why I have waited to add more. For a reference point, at the time of this post the global total of COVID cases has increased to over 3,114,000 positive cases, with the US total eclipsing 1 million in the last 24 hours.

As always, the first graph (see Figure 1) represented is the total number of positive COVID cases over time in the thirteen states. Even with the addition of the new states, the trends continue to separate into three distinct groups. Missouri, Arizona, Iowa, and Oregon have the fewest number of cases and curves which are visually flat. Oregon, as one of the states added today, has maintained an incredibly low spread, to date. Iowa has a jump in cases since the previous post. The middle group of states (Maryland, Ohio, Indiana, and Colorado) have not experienced the exponential rate of other states, but are still continuing to increase. The final group (Illinois, California, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Florida) have experienced a higher growth rate, though Florida appears (visually) to be flatting the curve.

Figure 1. Total Number of Positive COVID Cases over Time in Thirteen States

The second graph has changed slightly since the previous post. Figure 2 formally reviewed trend lines after 40 cases. Now, the graph represents trend lines after 100 cases. In other words, Day 1 on the graph for every state is the first day at least 100 cases were reported. Reorienting the x-axis in this manner allows a comparison between growth rates in the states. With this graph, there appear to be 4 or 5 groupings of states. The leveling off of Florida's growth rate is more evident here, when compared to California. Pennsylvania and Illinois recently surpassed Michigan in the spread of the disease.  

Figure 2. Total Positive COVID Cases over Time aft the 100th Reported Case

At this point, I have not gathered the population data for the new states. However, due the media reports on different tactics in different countries, I created a brief visual comparison. Twenty countries are included in Table 1. The countries included are the top ten countries in the total number of confirmed cases (US, Spain, Italy, France, UK, Germany, Turkey, Russia, Iran, and China), the US's neighbors (Canada & Mexico), the top ten most populous countries not already included (India, Indonesia, Pakistan, Brazil, Nigeria, & Bangladesh), and two countries whose approaches have been heavily publicized (South Korean & Sweden).

Table 1. COVID Cases, Population, Population Density, and Case Fatality Ratio for Twenty Countries

In Table 1, the columns are color coded to indicate the top five countries in each category. The colors represent first (red), second (orange), third (yellow), fourth (green), and fifth (blue) in each column. The United States is first in the total number of cases and third in the percentage of the population with the disease. In other words, yes the country is large, but it also has a very high incidence rate even though is has a very low population density. The United States is also first in the number of deaths, but given the sheer number of cases, the case fatality ratio is average. The European countries which reported over-crowded hospitals are among the highest in the case fatality ratio. The cases per square kilometer are highest in these nations. Of note is Sweden, which has a high case fatality ratio and has received international attention for not imposing social distancing.

As the United States transitions to a period of reopening, I will probably add a few of the early opening states to the graphs (looking at you, Georgia). I will try not to wait 13 days before posting again. Thank you to those of you who checked in and asked when I would post the next graphs. I appreciate it.
As always, Stay Home, Stay Safe, Stay Healthy -JRB