Adding 3 states: California, Colorado, & Florida

In the previous posts, the focus was on the first five states: Indiana, Maryland, Missouri, & Iowa. Today, California, Colorado, & Florida are added to the graphs. Similar to the other posts, today will be an update of all of the states' totals as well as updates to some of the other information which was previously explored. The purpose of this blog is to look beyond the total numbers at each state and to increase understanding of the trends in each state.

As I gathered the information on the new states, I realized that zero states in this analysis have a graph over time of the totals. The big push from the experts is to "bend the curve." However, none of the states are providing a visual of their curve. This evening, in the national briefing, Dr. Debbie Birx provided a visual of all 50 states included in one chart. You can see that graph here at time stamp 19:45. The data included here is the same data visualized in that graphic. The only difference is, with fewer states included, you can more easily see the trends of each state. In gathering the new data, Florida has the best data display (by far) compared to the other seven states (see it here). It includes a lot of the information examined previously in this blog. However, even Florida does not report the trend line of cases over time.

Figure 1. Total Number of COVID Cases over Time in Eight States

In Figure 1, you can see three of the states represented here following the sharp exponential growth trend (Michigan, Florida, & California). The other five states have not yet experienced that level of growth, and hopefully will not. A closer examination of the new states included in this figure shows that California's case began long before the reports in other states (this will be evident in Figure 2). Florida reported cases after California, but the spread in Florida has outpaced all of the states included in this graphic, besides Michigan. Hopefully, this figure is a clear demonstration of the push to "bend the curve." Iowa continues to report the lowest numbers of all eight states. Another element of note in this graph is the rise in cases at the exact same time in many states. This simultaneous rise is catastrophic for the health care system across the nation, since all states need supplies at the same time.

Adding in the three new states, it is worth looking at the state totals again from a common starting point (see Figure 2). Previously, that starting point was the reporting of 15 cases. This starting point has changed for today to reporting of 40 cases. This is primarily due to California, which reported over 40 cases back on March 5. In Figure 2, the growth trends of the three high volume states tell a different story. California currently has a large number of cases, but as mentioned previously, it took much longer for the state to get to that total. Of the eight states, Michigan is still experiencing the most extreme trajectory of cases.

Figure 2. Total Cases over Time, after 40 COVID Cases Reported in Eight States

Finally, it is worth revisiting the population data, now that other states are included. Table 1 includes the updated total number of cases, percentage of total population, and cases per square mile for each state. Maryland remains the most densely populated state of the eight states represented. Most people will realize that California and Florida are larger in population, by far, compared to the other states. Also, Colorado and California are larger that the others in square miles. Looking at how these geographical and population elements relate to COVID, of the states included, Michigan has the highest percentage of the population with the disease, followed by Colorado. Maryland has the largest number of cases per square mile, followed by Michigan and Florida. Colorado has roughly the same population density as Iowa, but the 3x the percentage of population diagnosed positive.

Table 1. Population, Square Miles, Population Density, and COVID for Eight States

 Looking at all of this data in totality, it is no surprise that the experts are warning that Michigan could be one of the next hot spots. Florida has also been mentioned. This data illustrates the importance of following the guidelines set forth by the CDC. One week ago, on 3/24/20, Michigan had 1791 cases. Today the reported positives in Michigan are 7615, an increase of 425%. 

As of this posting, the global total is over 857,900, the US total over 188,000, and in my county, 227 positive cases have been reported (which is nearly half of all the cases in Iowa). So, as always...

Stay home, Stay healthy, Stay safe.

JRB