March 25, 2020 - Adding in Missouri

The purpose of these posts is to take the data that is publicly available and look at it in different ways. My aim is to increase awareness beyond the state & national totals.

Yesterday, I posted a graph comparing the differences between two states, Maryland and Indiana. I chose those two states because I consider both to be my home.  I also mentioned that I would be adding more states to the graphs. The first request I received was Missouri (thanks, cousin!). As of this posting, Missouri had not updated the total number of cases for today (3/25). Indiana and Maryland both update their websites at 10 am daily, with no other updates on totals throughout the day. Missouri anticipates an update at 2pm today.
Figure 1 demonstrates the total number of cases in each state. This is an identical graph to the one I posted yesterday, with both today's numbers included, as well as Missouri being added to the mix.

Figure 1. The Total Number of COVID Cases for Three States

Another thing I wanted to look at today, now that three states are included, is the trend in the states from a specific point. Since each state has a different starting point of when COVID started to spread across the state, it is helpful to look at the trends from a specific number of cases. Looking at the data for these three states, I selected the day each state reported at least 15 cases as the starting point (Day 1). Each day after the initial day is subsequently ordered. For instance, Day 1 for Maryland is March 13, Indiana is March 14, and Missouri is March 19. Looking at the data in this way, you are better able to compare across states the acceleration of the spread .

Figure 2. Trend Lines of COVID Cases after 15th Case Reported in Each State

The final thing I planned to look at today was also suggested by someone on the original Facebook post. The questions are, what about population and population density? Occasionally, when I am researching a specific topic for my job, I need to dig into the Census. I realize this isn't something most people do. If you're interested in where this data came from, please see this link to the US Census.
Table 1 shows the total population, square miles, and population density of each of the three states. The final two columns calculate the percentage of the total state population with diagnosed COVID and the cases per square mile. Looking at this table, one can see that Missouri is significantly larger than Indiana, nearly twice the size (I didn't know that!). Therefore, the cases per square mile are very low. However, if we look back to Figure 2, we will remember that Missouri is at a different stage in the spread, compared to the other two states.

Table 1. COVID Cases by Population and Square Mile for Three States.

Another request I had was to look at the total number of tests in each state. Unfortunately, Maryland stopped publicly reporting this number a week or two ago. I will watch to see if that changes. If you have a specific state you would like me to add to my next post, please let me know.
Action makes a difference. Stay home. Stay safe. Stay healthy.
JRB